Ductile failure under plane stress conditions is analyzed at the meso-scale using periodic unit cell model simulations of void growth in a plastically deforming matrix. Equivalent strains to failure by the onset of plastic instability at the macro-scale are estimated using the loss of ellipticity criterion for the equilibrium equations. Failure loci obtained from the cell model simulations are compared with the predictions of an instability-based ductile failure model and the Hosford–Coulomb damage indicator model, under both proportional and non-proportional loading conditions. The instability-based model is shown to quantitatively predict the shape of the failure locus under proportional loading, including the presence of a cusp at uniaxial tension and a ductility minimum under plane strain tension, in the absence of heuristic adjustable parameters in the failure criterion. It is shown that the characteristic shape of the plane stress failure locus is primarily due to the Lode dependence of the failure criterion, and not the damage growth law as assumed in the damage indicator models. Under non-proportional loading involving a step change in loading direction at an intermediate strain, the instability-based model correctly predicts the non-linear variation of the failure strain as a function of the intermediate strain; unlike a linear variation predicted by the damage indicator models, which is not in agreement with the cell model simulations. Forming limit curves showing the strains to the onset of localized necking in thin sheets are also obtained from the cell model simulations using an appropriate modification of the macroscopic instability criterion. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd