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Short-term flood forecasting with a neurofuzzy model
Published in
2005
Volume: 41
   
Issue: 4
Pages: 1 - 16
Abstract
This study explores the potential of the neurofuzzy computing paradigm to model the rainfall-runoff process for forecasting the river flow of Kolar basin in India. The neurofuzzy computing technique is a combination of a fuzzy computing approach and an artificial neural network technique. Parameter optimization in the model was performed by a combination of backpropagation and least squares error methods. Performance of the neurofuzzy model was comprehensively evaluated with that of independent fuzzy and neural network models developed for the same basin. The values of three performance evaluation criteria, namely, the coefficient of efficiency, the root-mean-square error, and the coefficient of correlation, were found to be very good and consistent for flows forecasted 1 hour in advance by the neurofuzzy model. The value of the relative error in peak flow prediction was within reasonable limits for the neurofuzzy model. The neurofuzzy model forecasted 47.95% of the total number of flow values 1 hour in advance with less than 1% relative error, while for the neural network and fuzzy models the corresponding values were 36.96 and 18.89%, respectively. The forecasts by the neurofuzzy model at higher lead times (up to 6 hours) are found to be better than those from the neural network model or the fuzzy model, implying that the neurofuzzy model seems to be well suited to exploit the information to model the nonlinear dynamics of the rainfall-runoff process. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.
About the journal
JournalWater Resources Research
ISSN00431397
Open AccessNo
Concepts (23)
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    Errors
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    Forecasting
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    Fuzzy sets
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    Least squares approximations
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    Mathematical models
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    Neural networks
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    Neurology
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    Rain
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    Runoff
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    Flood forecasting
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    NEUROFUZZY COMPUTING TECHNIQUE
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    NEUROFUZZY MODELS
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    Rainfall-runoff process
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    Floods
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    Fuzzy mathematics
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    Rainfall-runoff modeling
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    River basin
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    Asia
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    Eastern hemisphere
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    Eurasia
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    India
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    South asia
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    World