Header menu link for other important links
X
Random parameter models for accident prediction on two-lane undivided highways in India
Published in
2011
PMID: 21392628
Volume: 42
   
Issue: 1
Pages: 39 - 42
Abstract
Introduction: Generalized linear modeling (GLM), with the assumption of Poisson or negative binomial error structure, has been widely employed in road accident modeling. A number of explanatory variables related to traffic, road geometry, and environment that contribute to accident occurrence have been identified and accident prediction models have been proposed. The accident prediction models reported in literature largely employ the fixed parameter modeling approach, where the magnitude of influence of an explanatory variable is considered to be fixed for any observation in the population. Similar models have been proposed for Indian highways too, which include additional variables representing traffic composition. The mixed traffic on Indian highways comes with a lot of variability within, ranging from difference in vehicle types to variability in driver behavior. This could result in variability in the effect of explanatory variables on accidents across locations. Random parameter models, which can capture some of such variability, are expected to be more appropriate for the Indian situation. Method: The present study is an attempt to employ random parameter modeling for accident prediction on two-lane undivided rural highways in India. Three years of accident history, from nearly 200 km of highway segments, is used to calibrate and validate the models. Results: The results of the analysis suggest that the model coefficients for traffic volume, proportion of cars, motorized two-wheelers and trucks in traffic, and driveway density and horizontal and vertical curvatures are randomly distributed across locations. Conclusions: The paper is concluded with a discussion on modeling results and the limitations of the present study. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
About the journal
JournalJournal of Safety Research
ISSN00224375
Open AccessNo
Concepts (28)
  •  related image
    Mixed traffic
  •  related image
    POISSON REGRESSION
  •  related image
    RANDOM PARAMETER MODELS
  •  related image
    ROAD ACCIDENT MODELING
  •  related image
    RURAL HIGHWAY
  •  related image
    Accidents
  •  related image
    Automobiles
  •  related image
    Forecasting
  •  related image
    Mathematical models
  •  related image
    Maximum likelihood
  •  related image
    Poisson distribution
  •  related image
    Rural roads
  •  related image
    Transportation
  •  related image
    Article
  •  related image
    Car
  •  related image
    Human
  •  related image
    India
  •  related image
    Information processing
  •  related image
    Mathematics
  •  related image
    Risk assessment
  •  related image
    Rural population
  •  related image
    Statistical model
  •  related image
    Statistics
  •  related image
    TRAFFIC ACCIDENT
  •  related image
    ACCIDENTS, TRAFFIC
  •  related image
    Data collection
  •  related image
    Humans
  •  related image
    Linear models