An attempt has been made to predict the segregation of carbon in continuously annealed hot-rolled low-carbon aluminum-killed steel (LCAK) through thermodynamic calculations. It is found that the surface carbon content calculated by the Guttmann model is comparable with the experimental results for inert atmosphere condition, whereas a large discrepancy is observed for the conventional continuous annealing furnace atmosphere. The main reason for this difference is the water-gas reaction that takes place on the surface of the steel sheet. It is proposed that this reaction, along with furnace atmosphere, determines the extent of carbon content on the sheet's surface. Based on this, the surface carbon content for various furnace conditions could be predicted. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.