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Optimal procurement of liquefied natural gas cargos from long-term contracts and spot market through mathematical programming
, Shahrukh M., Karimi I.A.
Published in ACS Publications
2021
Volume: 60
   
Issue: 9
Pages: 3658 - 3669
Abstract
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is increasingly becoming a fossil fuel of choice, especially in growing economies. The trade in LNG has traditionally been governed by long-term contracts (LTCs); however, recently, spot trade of LNG cargos is becoming popular. There is no approach reported in the literature for making LNG procurement decisions from both LTCs and spot cargos. In this work, we study this tactical procurement decision while considering factors such as price difference between the spot market and LTCs, demand at the regasification terminals, and LTC obligations. Two distinct strategies are proposed for this purpose: (1) LNG procurement heuristics (LNGPH) based on a locally optimal greedy search and (2) a mathematical programming-based LNG procurement model (LNGPM) that determines the optimal set of cargos by solving a mixed-integer linear program. We demonstrate both the methodologies using an illustrative example. To account for various uncertainties, a scenario-based comparison was also performed. In a range of 27 different scenarios, LNGPM consistently outperformed LNGPH, leading to an average annual saving of $83 million. However, LNGPH has a distinct advantage over LNGPM in computational time. Also, the solver was unable to solve one scenario even after 24 h. Therefore, LNGPH can be used as a low-cost backup when LNGPM is unable to deliver a solution in a reasonable time. © 2021 American Chemical Society. © 2021 American Chemical Society. All rights reserved.
About the journal
JournalIndustrial and Engineering Chemistry Research
PublisherACS Publications
Open AccessNo