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Multivariate modelling of water resources time series using artificial neural networks
Harihara Raman, N. Sunilkumar
Published in
1995
Volume: 40
   
Issue: 2
Pages: 145 - 163
Abstract
The artificial neural network (ANN) approach described in this paper for the synthesis of reservoir inflow series differs from the traditional approaches in synthetic hydrology in the sense that it belongs to a class of data-driven approaches as opposed to traditional model driven approaches. Most of the time series modelling procedures fall within the framework of multivariate autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. Formal statistical modelling procedures suggest a fourstage iterative process, namely, model selection, model order identification, parameter estimation and diagnostic checks. Although a number of statistical tools are already available to follow such a modelling process, it is not an easy task, especially if higher order vector ARMA models are used. This paper investigates the use of artificial neural networks in the field of synthetic inflow generation. The various steps involved in the development of a neural network and a ultivariate autoregressive model for synthesis are presented. The application of both types of model for synthesizing monthly inflow records for two reservoir sites is explained. The performance of the neural network is compared with the statistical method of synthetic inflow generation. © 1995 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
About the journal
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
ISSN02626667
Open AccessYes
Concepts (19)
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    Hydrology
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    Neural networks
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    Water resources
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    Computer simulation
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    Mathematical models
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    Performance
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    Regression analysis
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    Reservoirs (water)
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    MULTIVARIATE AUTOREGRESSIVE
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    MULTIVARIATE MODELLING
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    RESERVOIR INFLOW SERIES
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    RESERVOIR SITES
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    SYNTHETIC INFLOW GENERATION
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    WATER RESOURCES TIME SERIES
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    Artificial neural network
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    MULTIVARIATE MODELLING
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    Neural network
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    Reservoir inflow
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    TIME SERIES GENERATION