Wire electrical discharge turning (WEDT) process was developed to generate cylindrical form on any electrically conductive material applied in aerospace and automotive industry. The mechanism of metal removal in WEDT process is by means of successive spark discharge. Each spark results in the formation of crater. In the present work, a new model is proposed to predict the erosion rate of each spark for a given discharge energy. A new method is proposed to measure the crater depth from 2D roughness profile of the machined component. The proposed model is validated by conducting experiments on AISI 4340 steel and the results obtained are presented in the paper. It is observed that the results are in close proximity with the experimental values at low discharge energy. The stochastic erosion mechanism of WEDT process is analyzed using scanning electron microscope images of spark eroded wire. Using the proposed model the erosion rate can be controlled and better surface characteristic of machined surface can be achieved. © 2018 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.